Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-22 2.085133 2.206320 2.333773 2.478313 2.638301 2.810689 3.011454
2025-06-29 1.879768 2.043100 2.222883 2.437176 2.687976 2.975204 3.333506
2025-07-06 1.735925 1.919552 2.127767 2.384418 2.696712 3.070549 3.561901
2025-07-13 1.669776 1.874181 2.112074 2.414276 2.795453 3.271411 3.930236
2025-07-20 1.621548 1.843550 2.107832 2.452653 2.902038 3.485797 4.335621
2025-07-27 1.581926 1.818942 2.106825 2.491649 3.008595 3.705914 4.772960
2025-08-03 1.524055 1.767464 2.067685 2.476615 3.039266 3.821796 5.070354
2025-08-10 1.472161 1.720177 2.030260 2.459796 3.063851 3.928206 5.363723
2025-08-17 1.422297 1.672709 1.989485 2.434813 3.073349 4.010899 5.627220
2025-08-24 1.376478 1.628188 1.949971 2.408412 3.077548 4.083938 5.882114
2025-08-31 1.345459 1.601390 1.932306 2.410668 3.122747 4.223108 6.272270
2025-09-07 1.324015 1.586049 1.928897 2.432185 3.197321 4.415175 6.791542
2025-09-14 1.282764 1.543366 1.887105 2.397068 3.183822 4.462652 7.044533
2025-09-21 1.242913 1.501239 1.844442 2.358469 3.162131 4.493925 7.270501
2025-09-28 1.201790 1.456044 1.795779 2.308495 3.118769 4.482873 7.404013
2025-10-05 1.188904 1.448711 1.799603 2.336790 3.203294 4.707291 8.104407
2025-10-12 1.179355 1.445433 1.808725 2.373139 3.303200 4.970923 8.967359
2025-10-19 1.170459 1.442603 1.818132 2.410054 3.406438 5.253454 9.967530
2025-10-26 1.146969 1.418563 1.795802 2.395824 3.419560 5.358429 10.520426
2025-11-02 1.124224 1.394898 1.773157 2.379902 3.428345 5.455140 11.080293
2025-11-09 1.100425 1.369089 1.746489 2.356244 3.421500 5.518032 11.558260
2025-11-16 1.077364 1.343743 1.719718 2.331234 3.410506 5.570751 12.023206
2025-11-23 1.062743 1.330071 1.709874 2.333372 3.449625 5.738138 12.945465